It doesn’t matter whether I vote for Obama or Romney. My state is among those most solidly for Obama. Unless something changes drastically, Obama will get all my state’s electoral votes. If there is some dramatic shift, or the election in my state turns out to be close, then Romney will have won nationally by a landslide. I’ll still show up and vote, because there are several local and state issues to be decided, and because it is the way of my people.
My prediction remains that President Obama will be re-elected. There’s been no October surprise from the administration, as there would be if they thought they were in jeopardy. The betting odds favor Obama, and this is supported by what I can see from the Iowa Electronic Markets. I have less confidence in the polls, but on balance they favor Obama.
Against this, the polls and all other predictions hinge on assumptions about who shows up to vote, and the media establishment that publishes the “non-partisan” polls is all for President Obama. Anecdotally, I’ve seen surprisingly few yard signs for Romney, surprisingly many bumper stickers for religious freedom, and a notable lack of enthusiasm for both candidates. It’s not impossible that Romney might win, but it looks increasingly unlikely.