For the past month, I’ve been following Professor Sam Wang’s Electoral College Meta-Analysis. For election night he has an excellent Election guide/score card. I’m already on record with my prediction.
Today, I’ll be looking in occasionally at Tradesports for any last minute changes. I’ll also read BBC and check my favorite weblogs. Mostly, I’m going to go vote myself, and then try not to obsess about what other people are doing.
For election night coverage, I’m going to watch Fox News, CNN, and C-Span. If I had any sense, I’d put Lord of the Rings in the VCR and watch that until 10:00 or so. I think it’s dollar night at the video rental store. Maybe I’ll buy some Sierra Nevada Stout and a bag of cheap pretzels.
Here are what I see as some possible election-night surprises. I regard all of these outcomes as unlikely, hence the element of surprise. I just think these are the most likely of the unlikely outcomes.
- A tie in Electoral votes.
- An Electoral vote blow-out, where one side wins all the swing states.
- Similarly, the Republicans could end up with fifty-five or more seats in the Senate.
- A Popular vote landslide; There’s enough uncertainty that we could end up with one candidate getting fifty-five percent of the popular vote. The way things are today, I’d consider that a landslide.
- The Libertarians do better than expected; If it’s close, this could make a difference in a few key states. The Libertarians have been under-reported this cycle; They certainly deserve as much attention as Ralph Nader.
- High turnout and strong support for President Bush in the solid red states could give some unexpected Congressional races to the Republicans, and vice versa.
- Could Hawaii go to President Bush? We don’t know enough to rule it out; This is an example of the level of uncertainty among the talking heads and pollsters; This ignorance is why I think an unlikely outcome is more likely than usual, if that means anything.
Finally, in my favorite unlikely scenario, everything goes smoothly. There’s a clear winner with a popular mandate, and we get on with our lives. Anyway, it’s time to go do my part.